Autorzy: A. Savyon, E. Kharrazi i U. Kafash*
Wprowadzenie
Choć oficjalnym stanowiskiem reżimu irańskiego jest twierdzenie, że nie ma różnicy między Demokratą a Republikaninem w Białym Domu, ponieważ obaj będą antyirańscy, istnieje kilka godnych uwagi trendów w reakcjach irańskich na wybór Donalda Trumpa:
Reakcje wspólne dla obozu ideologicznego i pragmatycznego
· ZwycięstwoTrumpa było protestem przeciwko polityce administracji USA masakr, przemocy i ucisku zarówno w kraju, jak poza granicami USA. Mimo niezwykłych wysiłków administracji Obamy, by zakończyć międzynarodową izolację Iranu, przedstawiciele obu obozów irańskich atakowali Obamę i cieszyli się z porażki Demokratów.
· Trump jest lepszy dla Iranu niż Clinton. Mimo oficjalnej polityki reżimu nie prefereowania żadnego z kandydatów, niektórzy Irańczycy powiedzieli, że prezydent Trump jest lepszy dla Teheranu z kilku powodów:
o Trump stara się o lepsze stosunki z prezydentem Rosji, Władimirem Putinem, nie zaś o konflikt z nim, więc Iran oczekuje, że pozwoli Rosji zająć się Syrią, którą kontroluje Iran.
o Trump jest niepopularny na Zachodzie i dlatego będzie mu trudniej stworzyć międzynarodową koalicję przeciwko Iranowi – co Clinton zrobiłaby z łatwością.
o Trump będzie potrzebował trochę czasu, by zidentyfikować swoich republikańskich sojuszników w Kongresie zanim będzie mógł działać przeciwko Iranowi.
o Ponieważ Trump jest businessmanem, istnieje ostrożna nadzieja, że jego działania będą biznesowe, a nie ściśle ideologiczne.
Reakcje obozu pragmatycznego
· Obawa, że JCPOA będzie teraz anulowane – szczególnie wśród tych, którzy trudzili sie, by osiągnąć to porozumienie, włącznie z prezydentem Hassanem Rohanim, ministrem spraw zagranicznych Dżavadem Zarifem i członkami zespołu negocjacyjnego. Ci przedstawiciele obozu pragmatycznego szybko podkreślili, że USA muszą trzymać się swoich zobowiązań i realizować porozumienie z Iranem, a to z powodu ich obaw, że prezydent Trump spełni swoją obietnicę wyborczą i unieważni je. Inni wyrażali ostrożny optymizm, że Trump jako prezydent będzie inny niż Trump jako kandydat, co pokazywało jego przemówienie po wyborach, które, ich zdaniem, było bardziej wyważone i umiarkowane niż jego retoryka podczas kampanii.
Reakcje obozu ideologicznego
· Groźby przeciwko USA są przyciszone i zamiast tego są niewyraźne groźby, które są mniej konkretne niż w przeszłości, o odpowiedniej reakcji irańskiej na każde posunięcie, jakie USA mogą zrobić przeciwko Iranowi.
· Rekomendacje, by Trump skupił się na odbudowie w kraju zamiast podejmować kroki przeciwko Iranowi.
· Wzywanie Irańczyków, by trzymali się oficjalnej postawy reżimu przez całkowite powstrzymanie się od wypowiedzi za lub przeciwko Trumpowi.
Karykatura opublikowana 16 listopada 2016 r. przez irańską agencję informacyjną Mehr. Proszę zauważyć dwa węże z głową Hitlera za Trumpem.
Ocena MEMRI
Wydaje się, że wojskowo-polityczne elity Iranu wolą mieć do czynienia z prezydentem mężczyzną niż z kobietą [1]. Ponadto w przemówieniu z 2 listopada, przed rocznicą zajęcia ambasady USA w Teheranie, najwyższy przywódca Ali Chamenei wyjaśnił w niezwykłej wypowiedzi, że popularność Trumpa w społeczeństwie amerykańskim wynika z faktu, że mówi on „uczciwie”. Ponadto, w odróżnieniu od Clinton, kierownictwo irańskie widzi Trumpa jako człowieka nie oddanego wartościom demokratycznym lub prawom człowieka na podstawie jego uwag o kobietach i mniejszościach, ale jako dominującego władcę, z którym Iran może znaleźć wspólny grunt.
W tym kontekście ważne jest zauważenie, że Iran wybierał kooperacje z administracjami republikańskimi, które okazywały siłę i zdecydowanie. Na przykład, kiedy armia USA działała w Iraku i Afganistanie podczas administracji George’a W. Busha, Iran współpracował z siłami USA, a nawet z własnej inicjatywy przestał wzbogacać uran w obawie przed atakiem amerykańskim. Także podczas administracji Reagana reżim irański zainicjował dialog z USA o aferze Iran-Contras.
Współczesnym przykładem jest oświadczenie irańskiego źródła dyplomatycznego natychmiast po ogłoszeniu zwycięstwa Trumpa, że Iran zamierza usunąć ze swego terytorium pewnej ilości ciężkiej wody, która przekraczała limity ustalone przez JCPOA. W raporcie z początków listopada Międzynarodowa Agencja Energii Atomowej (MAEA) ostrzegała, że Iran posiada za dużo ciężkiej wody, ale dopiero po zwycięstwie Trumpa Iran pospiesznie ogłosił o zamiarze naprawienia tego naruszenia umowy.
Należy także zanotować, że Trump, który był krytyczny wobec JCPOA, nie musi podejmować kroków, by anulować to porozumienie. Może przyjąć inny sposób robienia tego przez ścisłe realizowanie wszystkich działów porozumienia, jakie już istnieje, utrzymując pierwotne sankcje Senatu wobec Iranu za łamanie praw człowieka i za poparcie dla terroryzmu, oraz uchwalenie dodatkowych sankcji, na przykład, za irański program pocisków balistycznych, którego administracja Obamy nie włączyła do JCPOA. W rzeczywistości, w ostatnich miesiącach administracja Obamy przychodziła z pomocą Iranowi [2], bezpośrednio naruszając JCPOA i początkowe sankcje Kongresu.
Takie posunięcia mogą przebudować stosunki między Iranem a administracją USA, zmieniając je w stosunki oparte na kooperacji i wzajemnym zrozumieniu – w odróżnieniu od pogardy i wyśmiewania administracji Obamy przez reżim irański. Ten scenariusz przypominałby sytuację po zwycięstwie Reagana, po którym Iran natychmiast uwolnił Amerykanów przetrzymywanych jako zakładników przez ponad rok za czasów administracji Cartera.
Jeszcze ważniejsze niż przyszłość JCPOA i znacznie pilniejsze jest to, co Trump zrobi z imperium militarnym i politycznym, jakie Iran buduje na Bliskim Wschodzie – w Iraku, Syrii, Libanie i Jemenie – z zachętą administracji Obamy, która dążyła do przesunięcia równowagi siły między sunnitami i szyitami w regionie na korzyść szyitów [3]. Jakie działania podejmie przeciwko kierowanej przez Iran osi szyickiej, która stoi przeciwko sunnitom, kierowanym przez Arabię Saudyjską i Turcję/ Co zrobi w sprawie strategicznego partnera Iranu, Rosji Putina?
Mehr, 16 listopada 2016.
Poniżej podajemy fragmenty reakcji irańskich na zwycięstwo Trumpa z obozów pragmatycznego i ideologicznego (fragmenty te nie są spolszczone):
Iran’s Pragmatic Camp
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said, during a visit to Romania: „We do not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. This is the choice of the American people. Anyone who will be president in America should recognize the reality in the region and the world, and address it realistically. Iran and America have no political ties, but America must meet its international obligations [under] the JCPOA, along with other parties.” [4]
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi said: „The Iranian people and the Islamic Republic of Iran have bad and bitter memories from the previous policies and approach of American administration officials. What is important to Iran, and the Iranian people – whom [we] consider a touchstone – is how the next American administration will act and conduct itself. These things are more important than [Trump’s] statements and the policies he expressed during his election campaign.
„The main cause of the escalating violence, extremism, and provocations of Muslims in the region is the policies of the previous American administrations, and their interference in the affairs of the countries in the region. The instability in the strategic regions of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea, and the threats stemming from the violence, extremism, spread of deviant and dangerous thought, and terrorism of groups such as ISIS – which Iran is at the forefront of combatting – indicate that America must reexamine its regional policy.” [5]
Iranian President Hassan Rohani stated, at a government meeting on November 9, that the JCPOA cannot be cancelled: „Iran’s wisdom in the nuclear agreement was to ratify the JCPOA as a Security Council resolution, and not a [bilateral] agreement with a particular country or administration. Therefore, [the JCPOA] cannot be changed according to the whims of a particular administration… The results of the American election will not influence Iranian policy.” He added: „Because of its mistaken policies, America’s status in international society and in global public opinion has waned, and its growing rift with the global society and with Europe damages this status even further… The American election results attest to domestic worry and instability, which will remain for a long time. It will also take a long time until these domestic disagreements and problems are sorted out.
„America today can no longer take advantage of Iranophobia to create a global anti-Iran coalition. Iran’s policy is based on constructive cooperation with the world, on breaking the nuclear sanctions, and on economic ties with the entire world. [This policy] is now emerging, and can no longer be reversed.” [6]
Reformist intellectual Prof. Sadegh Zibakalam explained on November 10 why Iran’s ideological camp preferred Trump to Clinton: „After the American election, there is surely much rejoicing among the streams hostile to America, and among those in Iran who persist in remaining hostile to America, because when Trump enters the White House there will be no more opportunity to ease Iran-U.S. tensions or to bring the [two] closer together… The extremists will exploit Trump’s positions and tell the moderates 'See how wrong you were? Do you see we were right and that America can absolutely not be trusted? Look at Trump’s anti-Iran stances – do you see why we said that we cannot be fooled by America and that we shouldn’t take its friendly smile seriously?’
„It won’t be long before many in Iran long for the days when Obama was in the White House and John Kerry ran the U.S. State Department. Then they will realize how good we had it, and that we could have reached understandings with America and moved towards removing the tension – but we missed that golden opportunity.
„The Russians are also glad that an extremist is now in the White House, because they believe that they can handle extremists, but not Democrats. They believe that it is possible to get along with Reagan, Trump, and George Bush, but that it is always difficult to deal with the Democrats. Therefore, the Russians, much like our own extremists, welcome Trump’s election, while moderate liberal streams in Europe that support human rights and such do not.” [7]
Responding to Zibakalam’s argument that Iran would welcome Trump, but not an Obama or a Clinton, the pragmatic website Asr-e Iran wrote: „Many believe that Trump’s victory will damage Iran and that Iran will encounter many problems in the post-Obama era. But in this article we will state not only that Trump’s victory will not harm Iran, but that Iran will benefit it.
„Unlike Obama and Clinton, Trump is more inclined [to deal with] domestic affairs, and does not wish to occupy himself with foreign affairs and regional crises. In his speeches, Trump openly stated that he opposes the attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan and does not want to bring America into other countries’ problems. Obama and Clinton desperately wanted to create hegemony in the region and outside it, but because America is now weaker at home, Trump wants to improve its domestic situation, and it can therefore be said that he does not wish to deal with Iran and the Middle East region.
„The most important Trump opponents now are European governments. The Europeans did not want Trump in power. But this is today’s reality, and we can say that Trump’s arrival has opened up a yawning chasm between Europe and America. The American presidents who preceded Trump had global leadership strength, because the world, and especially Europe, recognized them as world leaders. But today, not even the American elite, let alone European countries, recognize Trump as a global powerbroker. This means that Trump cannot form an international coalition against Iran or against countries that oppose America.
„Certainly, Europe in the Trump era will try to engage in its own interests, and will no longer make efforts for American interests. This is Iran’s best opportunity to take advantage of this possible Europe-U.S. gap. The Europeans have expressed interest in economic and political cooperation with Iran, and during these years [i.e. the Obama years], America was the only obstacle. In the Trump era, Iran could strengthen its ties with Europe.
„Trump is an economic player; for him, policy is determined by economic profit. Those who seek economic windfalls are never interested in wars or political crises, which can create market panic, unless the war benefits their economic interests.
„Trump’s America will be a country focused on matters that are marginal and on mere noise. This is the best time for Iran to promote its policy on the regional and international levels. The JCPOA under Trump could be the JCPOA of Iran and Europe, and because of the red-headed American president, America might slowly drift away from the JCPOA with Iran. Of course, we must stress that nothing is certain or predictable, especially with regard to Trump, and therefore the world and Iran should keep a close eye on the 45th American president.” [8]
Foad Izadi, an assistant professor in the American Studies department at Tehran University who has a degree from Louisiana State University, claimed that the biggest gift that Trump’s win is giving Iran is that Trump will find it difficult to mobilize international support against Iran – unlike Clinton, who could have easily done so. He added that Trump would also work against Iran in Congress, as Clinton would have, but that it will take Trump a while to identify his allies in Congress, unlike Clinton who would easily have gained support for whatever she chose to do.
Iran’s Ideological Camp
Deputy Majlis Speaker Ali Motahari said: „There will be a difference between Trump’s positions during the election campaign and [those he will adopt] during his presidency. I will summarize his election positions by saying that his presidency will be better for Iran than Clinton’s would have been, because the Democrats advance [toward their goals] more meticulously and they behead you with cotton wool.
„Trump is more honest and has better positions on Syria. Additionally, he does not view Saudi Arabia positively, and he wants good relations with Russia. I believe Trump’s opposition to the JCPOA is good for Iran. In effect, they [the Americans] can do nothing. Ultimately, I think Trump’s presidency will benefit Iran.” [9]
Mocking Western democracy, the Kayhan daily, on its November 10 front page, called Trump’s victory „Another Win For Liberal Democracy: The Madman Defeats The Mendacious Woman.” [10] That day’s editorial explained: „The whites who voted for Trump, being mostly educated [sic], and not from the upper classes, are greatly inclined to clash with racial minorities. Yesterday, immediately after Trump’s victory, in one state, young people who support him [congregated] and chanted anti-black and anti-Muslim slogans. The domestic situation in America is not so great, and daily events, such as what happened in Ferguson, deprive citizens of security. The Trump era could be anything but a time to heal the wounds opened by racial discrimination…
„Trump’s America will absolutely not be a new America with new capabilities, and therefore his anti-Iran declarations will not come to fruition. What is certain is that in the current situation, most Republicans in today’s House and Senate wish to reduce America’s extra-regional conflicts, and will abandon the rash policies of Obama, [who sought] to solve the [crisis] dossiers of the Middle East.
„Trump cannot reinvigorate America’s weary army, and the region is also lacking forces that can seriously replace those who are interfering there on behalf of America [i.e. rebel groups]. That is, the Trump era will see a decline in the wars waged by those who fight in America’s name.
„An interesting point in the American election was crediting Russia [with influencing the result]… Now there is talk of Russia’s influence in the American elections. Donald Trump not only does not deny allegations that he depends on Russia, but his [campaign] statements regarding U.S.-Russia cooperation brought him votes. He said that if he were elected, he would consider Crimea to be under Russian rule.” [11]
Iranian Army chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri said on November 10: „With regard to statements by the American president-elect and what he said during the election campaign – this man, who has now come to power, was too boastful. I have a suggestion for him: 'Relax, and ask your naval commanders and officers how your forces on that [U.S.] vessel ended up [i.e. captured by Iran, in January 2016].’ Threatening Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf is a joke. The might of Iran’s navy also exists in the IRGC’s land [branch], air [branch], passive defense, and Qods Force.” [12]
Ala Al-Din Boroujerdi, chairman of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on November 9: „Trump’s victory shows the America people’s reaction to the [U.S.] policy of warmongering, which caused thousands of Americans to lose their lives and squandered hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars in vain… It seems that American public opinion expects the people’s problems to be addressed [now]… We must wait and see what Trump’s policy vis-à-vis the region and the Islamic world will be…
„As for implementing the JCPOA, there is a difference between Trump campaigning for election and Trump the president. It is natural that when someone is elected U.S. president, they must place themselves within the framework of laws and international relations, including the JCPOA, and must remain committed to them. Any step or action [by Trump] will be met with an appropriate [Iranian] reaction.
„If Trump wants to act according to the positions he expressed during his campaign, he must end America’s cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the evil slaughter of the Yemeni people, because Saudi Arabia cannot drown tens of thousands of oppressed Yemenis in blood and ashes without American support. Trump should, at the very least, stop the [American] shipment of weapons to Saudi Arabia.” [13]
Yadollah Javani, senior advisor to Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC, indicated that Trump’s election campaign was different from previous campaigns, and that this has to do with the domestic situation in the U.S.: „Although Trump himself is seen as a wealthy businessman, in his election campaign he defended the poor, blacks, and the lower classes, and challenged the White House’s discriminatory and corrupt policy. Therefore, his message was popular.” Javani added that Trump becoming president was unlikely to radically shift American policy: „Neither Trump nor Clinton nor anyone else can save America, whose power is dwindling, and which has reached the end of the line as a superpower and an empire… American hostility towards [Iran’s] Islamic Revolution, its Islamic regime, and the Iranian nation lies in the arrogance of the American political regime. Thus, there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans… The clearer the enemy’s hostility becomes, the easier it is to deal with. Based on experience over the past 37 years, the Republicans’ hostility towards the Islamic Revolution and the Iranian nation has been more out in the open [than the Democrats’].” [14]
Hossein Naqavi Hosseini, spokesman for the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on November 9 that Trump had won because the Americans „were displeased with their rulers.” U.S. foreign policy, he said, „is fixed, and is based on interference, aggression, control, usurpation, and the beheading of nations. [But the difference is that] Democrats loot and behead with cotton wool, while Republicans [do it] cruelly with a knife.” About the JCPOA, he said: „Trump only has two options: [Either] act within the framework of the agreement, since it is not an agreement with America [only]. [Or,] if the Americans tear up the agreement, then Iran will be ready to burn it, as the leader [Khamenei] has said.” [15]
In his main official Friday sermon, on November 11, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Assembly of Experts member and Tehran Friday prayer leader, rebuked all those in Iran who expressed hope for a Trump presidency, contradicting the regime’s official line, and advised Trump to focus on U.S. affairs rather than seek adventures overseas: „Before the election, Iran’s policy [vis-à-vis the candidates] was logical and neutral, because our regime said that as far as that is concerned 'they are all the same,’ and [all the candidates] take orders from somewhere else – that is, they are servants of the Zionist regime. But some websites and newspapers [in Iran] were biased, and even before the election they welcomed a particular candidate’s win. This was unwise, and it would have been better for them to adhere to the regime’s policy…
„The candidate who won the American presidency said, 'Our country needs new roads, tunnels, and hospitals, but we do not have the necessary funds.’ Where do the [American] tax dollars go? They are spent on slaughter. I want to preach to the new president who has just come to power in America: If you continue in the path of your predecessors, be certain that your fate will be the same as theirs. They had particular characteristics, and you should not repeat their mistakes.
„The American president-elect must know that the Iranian nation exhausted previous American presidents… You called the Iranian people terrorists. If you have any decency and courage, you will apologize to them.
„Take care, because playing with the Iranian nation is like playing with a lion’s tail. I hope these words will reach your ears. You should know that Iran has a single character and a single slogan. Our character is resisting to the final man and final breath, and our slogan is that of the Imam Hussein: 'Humiliation and disgrace are far from us.’
„I hope that the new American president is wise enough to carry out what he said when he said 'I do not want tense [relations] with any country.’ If he does not carry this out, he will soon get to know the Iranian people…” [16]
Majlis speaker Ali Larijani called for restraint, saying, on November 13: „The analyses and editorializing regarding the American president-elect should be more mature. We must refrain from making rash judgments and from judging prematurely. We must wait and allow [Iran’s] diplomatic apparatus to take a clear stance.” [17]
*A. Savyon is director of the MEMRI Iran Studies Project; E. Kharrazi, and U. Kafash are Research Fellows at MEMRI*
Endnotes:
[1] Due in part to a preference by Iran’s political and cultural leadership, which ideologically excludes women in key roles, to not deal directly with a woman, especially one who in the past has openly worked against Iran.
[2] According to Western media reports, the Obama administration, and particularly Secretary of State John Kerry, are pressuring European companies and banks to invest in Iran despite Congress’s sanctions. See, for example, State.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/04/256536.htm, April 23, 2016; State.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/05/257116.htm, May 12, 2016. See also article by Stuart Levey, chief legal officer of HSBC Holdings, and former undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury Department (2004-11), „Kerry’s Peculiar Message About Iran For European Banks: Why is Washington pushing banks like mine to do what is still illegal for American banks?”,” Wsj.com/articles/kerrys-peculiar-message-about-iran-for-european-banks-1463093348, May 12, 2016; Finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-working-resolve-banking-concerns-093933912.html; and Bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-26/clinton-s-allies-promise-a-tougher-line-on-iran.
[3] Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal also said that Trump should not cancel the JCPOA and instead should focus on thwarting Iran, „which is working to destabilize” the Middle East. Reuters.com, November 11, 2016.
[4] Tasnim (Iran), November 9, 2016. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) also said that „Iran is prepared for any development. Iran is attempting to continue implementing the JCPOA” and „it has a long term plan.” Tasnim (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[5] ISNA (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[6] ISNA (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[7] Asr-e Iran (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[8] Asr-e Iran (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[9] ISNA (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[10] Kayhan (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[11] Kayhan (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[12] Tasnim (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[13] ISNA (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[14] Javan (Iran), November 10, 2016.
[15] Javan (Iran), November 9, 2016.
[16] Fars (Iran), November 11, 2016.
[17] ISNA (Iran), November 13, 2016.
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