Kwartet Arabski (Egipt, Arabia Saudyjska, Jordania i Zjednoczone Emiraty Arabskie) kontynuuje starania, by doprowadzić do pojednania wewnątrz Fatahu i by skłonić Mahmouda Abbasa do wyznaczenia następcy. Ostatnio Abbas odrzucił inicjatywę Kwartetu, by dokonał takiego mianowania z powodu tego, że nie może zaakceptować ingerencji arabskiej w sprawy palestyńskie [1].
W mediach arabskich pisano, że w celu rozwiązania tej kwestii 9 listopada 2016 r. delegacja wysokiego szczebla Ligi Arabskiej odwiedziła Abbasa w Ramallah. W skład delegacji wchodzili sekretarz Ligi Arabskiej, Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit i jego dwóch poprzedników, 'Amr Moussa i Nabil Al-Arabi. Przybyli oni do Ramallah pod pretekstem uczestnictwa w otwarciu Muzeum Arafata. Według doniesień ta trójka próbowała wywierać naciski na Abbasa, by wybrał następcę, a także próbowali przekonać go, by pojednał się z Muhammadem Dahlanem – który uprzednio był członkiem Palestyńskiej Rady Ustawodawczej z ramienia Fatahu oraz szefem sił bezpieczeństwa w Gazie, a teraz jest proponowanym następcą – jak również, by pozwolił mu na powrót na scenę polityczną po wyrzuceniu go z Fatahu w 2011 r., oraz by zaprzestał prześladowania jego i jego zwolenników.
Strona internetowa Arabi21, która jest zbliżona do Bractwa Muzułmańskiego, podaje w doniesieniu z 12 listopada, że wizyta delegacji w Ramallah i jej spotkanie z Abbasem prowadzone było „z dala od reflektorów mediów” w celu uniknięcia podejrzenia o normalizację z Izraelem, a także z powodu drażliwej natury spotkania – to jest, mianowania następcy Abbasa [2].
16 listopada niezależna gazeta islamistyczna w Egipcie, “Al-Misriyyoun”, opublikowała długie sprawozdanie z tej sprawy. Według gazety Abu Al-Gheit przedstawił Abbasowi nazwiska trzech możliwych następców: byłego ministra spraw zagranicznych i siostrzeńca Arafata, Nassera Al-Qidwy; członka Fatahu, Marwana Al-Barghoutiego, który odbywa pięć kar dożywocia w Izraelu za zorganizowanie ataków terrorystycznych podczas drugiej intifady; i Dahlana. W gazecie wyjaśniono, że kraje arabskie, a szczególnie Egipt, nalegały na ustalenie następcy Abbasa, ponieważ gdyby Abbas odszedł ze sceny politycznej bez wyznaczenia następcy, stanowisko prezydenta AP mogłoby przypaść przewodniczącemu Palestyńskiej Rady Ustawodawczej i funkcjonariuszowi Hamasu, 'Azizowi Dweikowi, dając Hamasowi przyczółek w kierownictwie AP [3].
Zarówno Arabi2, jak “Al-Misryyoun” informowały, że Abbas odrzucił żądania delegacji, mimo ich gróźb, że spotkają go sankcje i straci legitymację w oczach Ligi Arabskiej.
Należy wspomnieć, że w ostatnich tygodniach w prasie egipskiej ukazały się artykuły, które ostro krytykowały Abbasa za jego odpowiedź na próby mediacji przez Kwartet Arabski [4].
Poniżej podajemy fragmenty artykułu z „Al-Misriyyoun” [5].
[Ciąg dalszy opracowania nie jest spolszczony]
’Abbas and the Arab League delegation at the opening of the Arafat Museum (arabi21.com, November 12, 2016)
Al-Misriyyoun: 'Abbas Determined To Prevent Dahlan’s Return To Political Scene
The Al-Misriyyoun article stated: „Egypt’s relations with PA President Mahmoud 'Abbas have entered a dark tunnel, after a visit by a high-level delegation, headed by Arab League Secretary-General Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit and also including two former secretary-generals of the Arab League, 'Amr Moussa and Nabil Al-Arabi, failed [to achieve the desired results]. The delegation discussed [with 'Abbas] ways to resolve the crisis within Fatah and pump new blood into the reconciliation between the West Bank and Gaza. Knowledgeable sources reported that Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit demanded that 'Abbas agree to the return of Fatah official Muhammad Dahlan to the political scene, and that he stop persecuting [Dahlan’s] supporters in the movement and maligning him, after 'Abbas accused him of involvement in the assassination of the late Palestinian president Yasser Arafat. 'Abbas did not agree to the demands, and expressed his determination to convene the Fatah General Assembly that will consolidate [his position] as both Fatah chairman and PA president.
„The sources claimed that the high-level Egyptian delegation was surprised by 'Abbas’s inflexible positions on all issues. Moreover, 'Abbas also criticized the Arab states’ intervention in a Palestinian matter, while rejecting all the demands, especially the demand to appoint a successor for the role of PA president who will be acceptable to the Arab states, in light of his own failing health.”
Al-Misriyyoun: Three Candidates To Succeed 'Abbas Were Proposed – Nasser Al-Qidwa, Marwan Al-Barghouti, And Muhammad Dahlan
According to the Al-Misriyyoun report, „Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit proposed three candidates to succeed 'Abbas: former [PA] foreign minister and Arafat’s nephew Nasser Al-Qidwa, [former] Fatah secretary in the West Bank Marwan Al-Barghouti, and [former] head of Preventive Security in Gaza, Muhammad Dahlan. 'Abbas refused, and informed [Abu Al-Gheit] of his intention to remove Dahlan from all Fatah institutions so as to prevent him from attaining any political position in the future, and also [of his intention] to gain the support of Fatah’s next [i.e. seventh] General Assembly for his decision. 'Abbas’s stubbornness on the Dahlan issue enraged the Arab states, headed by Egypt, who are very interested in naming 'Abbas successor, so as to be prepared for a deterioration in the state of his health or any possibility of his disappearance from the political scene. [The absence of a successor] will enable [Palestinian] Legislative Council Speaker 'Aziz Al-Dweik, a Hamas leader, to take 'Abbas’s place, giving Hamas a foothold in Palestinian decision-making, a possibility to which Egypt strongly objects.”
Al-Misroyyoun: Cairo Threatened Sanctions Against 'Abbas Should He Refuse To Appoint A Successor
The report stated further that „Cairo threatened to take sanctions against 'Abbas if he rejected its efforts to appoint a successor, and expressed willingness to reach an agreement with Israel in order to release Marwan Barghouti [from prison], should 'Abbas accept him as the successor – and this as a signal to 'Abbas that the successor does not necessarily have to be Dahlan, whom he still rejects…
„According to observers, 'Abbas’s rejection of the Arab states’ mediation in resolving the crisis with Dahlan or appointing a successor will lead to a deep crisis with the Arab Quartet (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE). He will be bereft of Arab support and will be isolated, as [the late] Palestinian president Yasser Arafat was isolated before his death.”
International Relations Expert To Al-Misriyyoun: 'Abbas Is Irrelevant; Dahlan Is Popular
According to the daily, Sa’id Al-Lawandi, an expert in international relations at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, „believes that 'Abbas became irrelevant in the eyes of all Arab states after he refused every compromise proposed by the Arab Quartet regarding naming his successor, while Dahlan enjoys overt Arab support, since he is one of the few people able to restrain Hamas and keep it from taking over the [Palestinian] Authority. Al-Lawandi said in exclusive statements to Al-Misriyyoun that Dahlan has good relations with Israel, he is highly popular within Fatah, and he has close ties with the Arab states. In fact, he remains the top candidate to succeed 'Abbas should [the latter] vanish from the Palestinian scene. He noted that some Arab states were grooming Dahlan as 'Abbas’s successor, and this was the cause of the crisis between 'Abbas and the Arab states that have influence in the Palestinian arena and have been long [pushing] Dahlan as an alternative to 'Abbas.”
Former Arab League Assistant Secretary-General To Al-Misriyyoun: There Are Indications That Dahlan Will Be PA President
The daily also presented statements by Sa’id Kamal, a former Arab League assistant secretary-general, who „revealed that PA President Mahmoud 'Abbas is expected to quit politics due to a deterioration in his health, and that Dahlan is slated to take his place due to his considerable popularity. In exclusive statements to Al-Misriyyoun, Kamal noted that there have long been indications that Dahlan will be the [next] PA president, but that he will face the same fate [as 'Abbas], namely the Gaza-West Bank conflict. [Kamal] noted that the next Fatah Assembly, scheduled to take place in a few weeks, will discuss various political issues, including 'Abbas’s future and the future of Fatah and the PA, due to the Arab [states’] desire to settle matters to the satisfaction of the mother Palestinian movement [i.e. Fatah].”
Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister To Al-Misriyyoun: Barghouti Is Unlikely To Be 'Abbas’s Successor
„In a different context, former [Egyptian] assistant foreign minister Ahmad Al-Qweisni [also] said that whoever succeeds 'Abbas as PA president will face the same problems 'Abbas faced. In exclusive statements to Al-Misriyyoun, Al-Qweisni stressed that, if 'Abbas dies, Fatah’s policy will change, and many other aspects of the movement could change as well. He noted that there are several candidates for successor to 'Abbas, one of them Dahlan, despite the rivalry between the two. However, he rejected the possibility of Marwan Barghouti holding public office, [noting] that he will certainly not be [the PA president], unless the Palestinian people insist on this.”
Endnotes:
[1] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1270, Tension Between Mahmoud 'Abbas, Arab Quartet Over Initiative For Internal Reconciliation In Fatah, September 27, 2016.
[2] Arabi21.com, November 12, 2016.
[3] Al-Misriyyoun (Egypt), November 16, 2016.
[4] See for example Al-Ahram (Egypt), October 27, 2016, November 13, 2016; Al-Yawm Al-Sabi’ (Egypt), November 8, 2016.
[5] Al-Misriyyoun (Egypt), November 16, 2016.
Visit the MEMRI site in Polish: http://www2.memri.org/polish/
If you wish to reply, please send your email to memri@memrieurope.org .
