{"id":9987,"date":"2017-11-16T21:02:26","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T20:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/?p=9987"},"modified":"2017-11-16T21:02:26","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T20:02:26","slug":"niepokoj-w-jordanii-wobec-proiranskich-sil-na-granicy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/niepokoj-w-jordanii-wobec-proiranskich-sil-na-granicy\/9987","title":{"rendered":"Niepok\u00f3j w Jordanii wobec proira\u0144skich si\u0142 na granicy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Osi\u0105gni\u0119cia re\u017cimu syryjskiego i jego sojusznik\u00f3w w po\u0142udniowej Syrii w ostatnich miesi\u0105cach wywo\u0142a\u0142y narastaj\u0105cy niepok\u00f3j w Jordanii wobec coraz wi\u0119kszej obecno\u015bci proira\u0144skich si\u0142 na granicy Syria-Jordania. Kr\u00f3l Jordanii 'Abdallah II wyrazi\u0142 zaniepokojenie we wrze\u015bniu bie\u017c\u0105cego roku: \u201ePilnie przypatrujemy si\u0119 rozwojowi [sytuacji] w po\u0142udniowej Syrii i obrona naszej p\u00f3\u0142nocnej granicy przed organizacjami terrorystycznymi i zagranicznymi milicjami jest dla nas najwy\u017cszym priorytetem\u2026 Jeste\u015bmy gotowi i zdolni do silnej reakcji na ka\u017cd\u0105 eskalacj\u0119, jaka mo\u017ce nam grozi\u0107, czy to ze strony ISIS, czy jakiejkolwiek zagranicznej grupy walcz\u0105cej w Syrii”<\/a>[1]<\/a>. Obawy Jordanii dotycz\u0105ce ekspansji Iranu w regionie nie s\u0105 niczym nowym. Kr\u00f3l Abdallah ostrzega\u0142 ju\u017c w 2004 r. przed wy\u0142onieniem si\u0119 \u201cszyickiego p\u00f3\u0142ksi\u0119\u017cyca\u201d \u2013 terytorialnego continuum rozci\u0105gaj\u0105cego si\u0119 od Iranu, przez Irak i Syri\u0119 do Libanu.<\/p>\n

W pr\u00f3bie zapobie\u017cenia konsolidacji obecno\u015bci tych si\u0142 na jorda\u0144skiej granicy w ostatnich miesi\u0105cach Jordania i USA prowadzili intensywne rozmowy z Rosj\u0105, sojusznikiem re\u017cimu syryjskiego, by wyznaczy\u0107 stref\u0119 de-eskalacji w po\u0142udniowej Syrii, podobn\u0105 do tych, kt\u00f3re zosta\u0142y stworzone jako cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 rozm\u00f3w Astana sponsorowanych przez Rosj\u0119, Iran i Turcj\u0119. W lipcu 2017 r. podpisano w Ammanie porozumienie o zawieszeniu broni w po\u0142udniowej Syrii pod egid\u0105 Jordanii, USA i Rosji. Doprowadzi\u0142o to do podpisania 8 listopada 2017 r. memorandum zasad przez te trzy kraje o ustanowieniu strefy de-eskalacji w po\u0142udniowej Syrii.<\/p>\n

Wydaje si\u0119 jednak, \u017ce to memorandum zasad nie u\u015bmierzy\u0142o obaw Jordanii. Szczeg\u00f3\u0142y memorandum nie zosta\u0142y w pe\u0142ni ujawnione<\/a>[2]<\/a>, ale, wed\u0142ug doniesie\u0144, wy\u0142oni\u0142y si\u0119 silne r\u00f3\u017cnice zda\u0144 mi\u0119dzy podpisuj\u0105cymi pa\u0144stwami, szczeg\u00f3lnie w sprawie obecno\u015bci si\u0142 proira\u0144skich. Jorda\u0144ska gazeta\u201dAl-Ghad\u201d informowa\u0142a, \u017ce „w nowym memorandum zasad strony syryjskie \u2013 re\u017cim i opozycja w po\u0142udniowej Syrii \u2013 zobowi\u0105za\u0142y si\u0119 do oczyszczenia terytori\u00f3w pod ich kontrol\u0105 z zagranicznych organizacji i milicji”<\/a>[3]<\/a>. Ale przedstawiciele rosyjscy, wraz z ministrem spraw zagranicznych, Siergiejem \u0141awrowem, powiedzieli, \u017ce Rosja nie podpisa\u0142a \u017cadnej klauzuli wymagaj\u0105cej, by zwi\u0105zane z Iranem si\u0142y opu\u015bci\u0142y Syri\u0119<\/a>[4]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ponadto w ostatnich dniach arabskie i zagraniczne media informowa\u0142y, \u017ce Iran istotnie konsoliduje swoj\u0105 obecno\u015b\u0107 w po\u0142udniowej Syrii. Wed\u0142ug tych doniesie\u0144, Brygada 313, si\u0142a stacjonuj\u0105ca\u00a0 na obszarze Izra, 30 km od jorda\u0144skiej granicy, sk\u0142ada si\u0119 z syryjskich \u017co\u0142nierzy, ale jest bezpo\u015brednio podporz\u0105dkowana Korpusowi Stra\u017cnik\u00f3w Rewolucji Islamskiej w Iranie (IRGC)<\/a>[5]<\/a>. Informowano r\u00f3wnie\u017c, \u017ce Iran za\u0142o\u017cy\u0142 baz\u0119 wojskow\u0105 na obszarze Al-Kiswa, 13 km na po\u0142udnie od Damaszku<\/a>[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

W \u015bwietle tego rozwoju sytuacji ostatnio publikowane artyku\u0142y w Jordanii wyra\u017ca\u0142y obawy o obecno\u015b\u0107 ira\u0144sk\u0105 w po\u0142udniowej Syrii, a nawet wzywa\u0142y do przeszkodzenia temu \u015brodkami militarnymi. Niekt\u00f3rzy radzili nie liczenie na memorandum zasad i na strefy deeskalacji jakie ma ustanowi\u0107. Artyku\u0142 w rz\u0105dowej gazecie \u201eAl-Rai\u201d ostro krytykowa\u0142 USA za brak dzia\u0142a\u0144 przeciwko ekspansji Iranu w regionie.<\/p>\n

Poni\u017cej znajduj\u0105 si\u0119 fragmenty tych artyku\u0142\u00f3w [dalsza cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 raportu nie jest spolszczona<\/strong>]:<\/p>\n

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The Jordan-Syria border region (image: Al-Ghad, Jordan, November 11, 2017)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Al-Rai<\/em><\/strong> Article: U.S. Doing Nothing To Prevent Iranian Expansion In Region<\/strong><\/p>\n

Faisal Malkawi, a senior member of the Al-Rai<\/em> editorial board, warned about the Iranian expansion in the region and the emergence of a territorial continuum from Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. He also criticized America’s failure to prevent this development, writing: „The puzzling fact is that the U.S. under Donald Trump, which proclaims [the adoption of] a radical strategy vis-\u00e0-vis Iran, its nuclear program and its interference in the region, is in practice doing nothing about the Iranian expansion. This is especially [grave] in light of the imminent completion of the land route from Tehran to Beirut. This route passes through American influence zones and close to U.S. bases in northeastern Syria. The Americans and their allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces, also have troops and bases east of Deir Al-Zor and in Al-Tanaf, while [only] kilometers away, within their line of sight, IRGC and Hizbullah militia forces [recently] entered the Syrian city of Al-Bukamal and held public celebrations there… The Iranian presence on the Syria-Iraq border allows Tehran to complete its land route and defend it militarily and strategically as an influence and interference zone that will be part of any future solution…”<\/a>[7]<\/a><\/p>\n

Former Information Minister Al-Qallab: We Must Not Allow Militias On Our Border, Even At Cost Of Military Action <\/strong><\/p>\n

In his column in the government daily Al-Rai<\/em>, former Jordanian information minister Saleh Al-Qallab called on Jordan to be very cautious despite the signing of the memorandum of principles on the de-escalation zone in southern Syria, and to continue insisting on the withdrawal of the Iranian forces from Syria, even if this requires military action against them:\u00a0 „Having heard provocative statements from Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, who was visiting Iranian forces and the militias under their command in Aleppo,<\/a>[8]<\/a> and since those who closely monitor the Syrian arena have revealed that Iran has a military base south of Damascus, [a base] that faces Jordan, rather than the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights, we must think very carefully before applauding the Russian and American decision to establish a de-escalation zone in southwestern Syria…<\/p>\n

„We must not fall asleep or start ululating in joy over this agreement, whose details are not yet fully known and which is still [nothing but] ink on paper… We must not rest on our laurels, for we have heard the statements of [Iranian President] Hassan Rohani, [Khamenei’s advisor] Ali Akbar Velayati and [Hizbullah secretary-general] Hassan Nasrallah. Before celebrating the promise to establish a [quiet] front in southwestern Syria, we must insist on the condition that the Iranians leave our sister state [Syria], starting with the removal of [their forces] from our northern border. We must not tolerate any militia close to the border, even if this obligates us [to deploy] the Arab Jordanian army. What is happening in Syria is a game between nations. This is a dirty game, [so] we must not believe anyone’s [promises regarding the removal of the Iranian forces] until we see it with our own eyes.”<\/a>[9]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"
Base being constructed by Iran in Al-Kiswa, south of Damascus (image: bbc.com, November 10, 2017)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Al-Dustour<\/em><\/strong> Board Chairman: Iran’s Presence On Our Border \u2013 An Intolerable Strategic Threat<\/strong><\/p>\n

Muhammad Daoudia, board chairman of the Al-Dustour<\/em> daily, wrote under the title „The Iranian Threat to Jordan”: „Various Iranian leaders declare that their country is expanding and establishing itself in several Arab capitals \u2013 Baghdad, Sanaa, Beirut and Damascus \u2013 and this comes on top of the courtship between Iran and Hamas and Iran’s insistence on encroaching on our northern border. Senior Iranian military commanders and representatives of Iranian militias in the region have made public statements aimed at Jordan, sometimes intended to threaten it and sometimes to pressure it. [The former] commander of the Iranian Basij, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said that his Basij would maintain a presence in Jordan, just as it does in Lebanon and Palestine. Shi’ite fighters are streaming into Syria by the thousand, from Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran, under the command of [Iranian] General Qassem Soleimani and with the support of the IRGC and [its] Qods Force…<\/p>\n

„From our perspective, the sectarian [i.e., Shi’ite] militias under Iran’s command are approaching our border from the north, taking the place of the ISIS terror organization and working to gain a foothold on this front, thus posing an ever-increasing security challenge for us. This will cause us to confront Iran along our 350-km border with Syria…<\/p>\n

„Iran has begun to lay the foundations for a military industry in Syria and Lebanon, including facilities for manufacturing long-range missiles…<\/a>[10]<\/a><\/p>\n

„Iran’s conduct has prompted us to treat this 'Iranian neighbor’ as a strategic threat that cannot be accepted, forcing [us] to take the necessary measures to maintain security and stability on our border [and safeguard it] against any threat and any presence of the sectarian militias commanded by Iran…”<\/a>[11]<\/a><\/p>\n

Jordanian Researcher: The Establishment Of Brigade 313 And The Atmosphere In The Region Require Reassessment Of Our Position And Preparations For The Future <\/strong><\/p>\n

Muhammad Abu Rumman, a researcher at the Center of Strategic Studies in the University of Jordan, wrote in his column in Al-Ghad<\/em>: „Despite the signing last Wednesday [November 8] of a de-escalation agreement in southern Syria… \u2013[an agreement] intended to reinforce the July [2017] Amman agreement between the U.S. and Russia \u2013 the situation is apparently not so simple, considering that regional developments have turned the entire situation on its head…<\/p>\n

„The new surprise [that occurred] during the preparations for the de-escalation agreement in southern Syria was the founding of local militias in Deraa (Brigade 313), which according to the Syrian opposition are sectarian in character, as well as militias in Izra which are fully supported by Iran’s IRGC and are modeled on local sectarian militias previously established in Iraq and Syria.<\/p>\n

„This move involves considerable cunning on the part of the Iranians, for these militias are local and are somewhat removed from the Jordanian border, yet they were established for a more important [goal] in the next phase, namely bringing the sectarian conflict into the southern parts [of Syria] and securing Iran a foothold [there], as well as tools for confronting other elements… Such an Iranian move was probably not part of Jordan’s and America’s considerations and analyses…<\/p>\n

„True, Jordan’s balanced and rational position amid this poisoned regional atmosphere is met with approval by a large portion of the Jordanian public, which fears that the region may slide into an [even] worse phase. Nevertheless, this position may exact a higher price [in the future]…”<\/a>[12]<\/a><\/p>\n

Al-Dustour<\/em><\/strong> Article: The Establishment Of Brigade 313 On The Jordanian Border Is Jordan’s And Iran’s Last Tango <\/strong><\/p>\n

'Oraib Al-Rantawi, director of the Center for Political Studies in Amman, wrote in his Al-Dustour<\/em> column, under the title „Jordan’s and Iran’s Last Tango”: „Relations between countries are like a tango. They require two parties, and cannot develop unilaterally… Over the years, and perhaps throughout the last four decades, Jordan’s relations with Iran were based on two main criteria, from the Jordanian perspective: first, on whether Jordan’s relations with the Gulf [states] were [characterized by] crisis or by normalization, and second, [on the state of] the relations between Tehran and Washington. As a matter of principle, Jordan cannot disregard her two main allies, Washington and Riyadh…<\/p>\n

„Every time Jordan wanted to convey a message of good will to Iran, it was met with a cold shoulder and with a blow. Amman’s and Tehran’s last tango occurred last night, when a Lebanese friend of mine asked me about Brigade 313 of [Iran’s] Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is [reportedly] being formed in southern Syria and is headquartered in the town of Izra in the Deraa Governorate… This is happening even though Tehran \u2013 one of the guarantors in the track of the Astana talks [on Syria] \u2013 is well aware of the Jordanian position which firmly demands that the 'sectarian militias’ [i.e., the Iranian forces and their affiliated Shi’ite militias] maintain a buffer zone between themselves and the Syria-Jordan border. Moreover, these reports arrive when the region is on the brink of the abyss, and it takes only a small push or some accidental unfortunate incident to [make it] slide to the bottom…”<\/a>[13]<\/a><\/p>\n

Former Information Minister Al-Ma’aita: Every Country Will Have To Defend Itself Against Iran’s Expansion Plan, Like It Did Against ISIS <\/strong><\/p>\n

Former Jordanian information minister Samih al-Ma’aita wrote in the Jordanian e-daily Amon News: „Jordan understands Iran’s moves and mentality very well, and [realizes] that Iran yearns to repeat what it has [already] done in Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain and Iraq in additional [Arab] capitals…<\/p>\n

„Jordan, which is inclined to oppose the Iranian expansion plan, yearns [to see] a deterrent Arab diplomacy vis-\u00e0-vis this plan. In any case, it seems that the Iranian-Arab issue will be the next [pressing] issue, now that ISIS has declined [in importance]. Perhaps each country will have to defend itself, as was the case with ISIS and the danger it posed, until something [finally] causes Iran to understand that it is part of the region rather than its master.”<\/a>[14]<\/a><\/p>\n

* Z. Harel is a research fellow at MEMRI.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>[1]<\/a> Al-Ghad<\/em> (Jordan), September 13, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[2]<\/a> Several maps of the de-escalation zone in southern Syria have appeared in the media, but they do not appear to be the official maps, which have not been released.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[3]<\/a> Al-Ghad<\/em> (Jordan), November 11, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[4]<\/a> Facebook.com\/Russianmilitaryinsyria, November 14, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[5]<\/a> The establishment of such forces is a well-known Iranian tactic. See MEMRI reports: Inquiry & Analysis No. 1241, In Syria, High Rate Of Draft Dodging Triggers Intensive Military Recruitment Efforts By Syrian Regime,<\/a> April 25, 2016; Inquiry & Analysis No. 1242, Syria Regime Establishing Popular Armed Militias Modeled On Iranian Basij<\/a>, April 25, 2016.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[6]<\/a> Bbc.com, November 10, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[7]<\/a> Al-Rai<\/em> (Jordan), November 16, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[8]<\/a> During his Aleppo visit, Velayati said: „[Our] resistance front will begin in Iran, pass through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and reach Palestine.” Aksalser.com, November 8, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[9]<\/a> Al-Rai<\/em> (Jordan), November 14, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[10]<\/a> For reports by a Syrian opposition website on a facility for manufacturing Iranian long-range Fateh 110 missiles near Hama, Syria,\u00a0 see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 7004, Further Reporting By Syrian Opposition Website On Long-Range Missile Facility Near Baniyas: It Is Making Iranian Fateh-110 Missiles<\/a>, July 11, 2017. About Iranian long-range missile facilities in Lebanon, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 6828, Kuwaiti Daily: Missile, Arms Factories Built By IRGC In Lebanon Have Recently Been Handed Over To Hizbullah<\/a>, March 14, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[11]<\/a> Al-Dustour<\/em> (Iran), November 8, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[12]<\/a> Al-Ghad<\/em> (Jordan), November 13, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[13]<\/a> Al-Dustour<\/em> (Jordan), November 10, 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a>[14]<\/a> Ammonnews.net, November 8, 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Osi\u0105gni\u0119cia re\u017cimu syryjskiego i jego sojusznik\u00f3w w po\u0142udniowej Syrii w ostatnich miesi\u0105cach wywo\u0142a\u0142y narastaj\u0105cy niepok\u00f3j w Jordanii wobec coraz wi\u0119kszej obecno\u015bci proira\u0144skich si\u0142 na granicy Syria-Jordania. Kr\u00f3l Jordanii 'Abdallah II wyrazi\u0142 zaniepokojenie we wrze\u015bniu bie\u017c\u0105cego roku: \u201ePilnie przypatrujemy si\u0119 rozwojowi [sytuacji] w po\u0142udniowej Syrii i obrona naszej p\u00f3\u0142nocnej granicy przed organizacjami terrorystycznymi i zagranicznymi milicjami […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[827,833,835,837,838],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran","category-badania-i-analizy","category-archiwum","category-kraje","category-jordania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9987"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9987\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9990,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9987\/revisions\/9990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}