Stwierdzaj\u0105c, \u017ce \u201enie ma potrzeby informowa\u0107 Mi\u0119dzynarodowej Agencji Energii Atomowej (MAEA), \u017ce mamy bomb\u0119 atomow\u0105\u201d, doda\u0142, \u017ce Iran nie ujawnia inspektorom MAEA, gdzie budowana jest bomba, ani nie zapewnia MAEA dost\u0119pu do wszystkich ira\u0144skich obiekt\u00f3w nuklearnych. Odnosz\u0105c si\u0119 do (nieistniej\u0105cej) fatwy Chameneiego rzekomo zakazuj\u0105cej produkcji broni nuklearnej\u00a0[1]<\/a>\u00a0wyja\u015bni\u0142, \u017ce fatwa jest \u201eaktywnym\u201d stanowiskiem ze strony Iranu \u2013 to znaczy, \u017ce w ira\u0144skiej doktrynie obronnej nie ma miejsca na bro\u0144 nuklearn\u0105. Jednak \u2013 kontynuowa\u0142 \u2013 sytuacja, w kt\u00f3rej Iranowi zagra\u017caj\u0105 jego wrogowie, tacy jak dzia\u0142aj\u0105cy przeciwko niemu Izrael (mimo \u017ce Iran odmawia Izraelowi prawa do istnienia i d\u0105\u017cy do jego wyeliminowania), wymaga od Iranu zaj\u0119cia \u201ebiernego\u201d stanowiska \u2013 to znaczy posiadania broni nuklearnej dla cel\u00f3w obronnych i odstraszania.<\/p>\n Ardestani stwierdza, \u017ce \u200b\u200bw oparciu o modus operandi<\/em> Teheranu, kt\u00f3ry jego zdaniem jest wykalkulowany i nie ryzykowny, Iran nie zaatakowa\u0142by Izraela ani Stan\u00f3w Zjednoczonych\u00a0[2]<\/a>\u00a0rakietami, gdyby nie mia\u0142 \u201ezaplecza\u201d w postaci bomby atomowej \u2013 co oznacza, \u017ce j\u0105 ma. A jest tak dlatego, powiedzia\u0142, \u017ce zar\u00f3wno Izrael, jak i USA posiadaj\u0105 tak\u0105 bro\u0144 i eskalacja mo\u017ce doprowadzi\u0107 do wojny, w kt\u00f3rej Iran stanie w obliczu zagro\u017cenia nuklearnego.<\/p>\n Cho\u0107 Ardestani zauwa\u017cy\u0142, \u017ce Iran obawia si\u0119 przestraszenia swoich sojusznik\u00f3w, Rosji i Chin, oraz \u017ce Rosja nie chce, by Iran posiada\u0142 bomb\u0119 atomow\u0105, spodziewa si\u0119, \u017ce Rosja wykorzysta swoje weto w Radzie Bezpiecze\u0144stwa ONZ, aby udaremni\u0107 ewentualne sankcje wobec Iranu ze strony mocarstw Zachodu, gdy tylko b\u0119dzie wiadomo, \u017ce Iran posiada bomb\u0119 atomow\u0105. Ardestani bagatelizowa\u0142 r\u00f3wnie\u017c mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 zastosowania dalszych znacz\u0105cych krok\u00f3w przeciwko Iranowi za zdobycie bomby atomowej, poniewa\u017c jest on ju\u017c obj\u0119ty wszelkiego rodzaju sankcjami.<\/p>\n Dwuznaczno\u015b\u0107 wypowiedzi Ardestaniego jest zamierzona. Swoje uwagi na temat zdobycia przez Iran bomby atomowej zastrzega s\u0142owami: \u201eUwa\u017cam, \u017ce\u201d, \u201emoim zdaniem\u201d lub \u201eM\u00f3wi\u0119 to jako ekspert i analityk, ale nie ma jeszcze oficjalnego stanowiska [kt\u00f3re mo\u017ce spowodowa\u0107, \u017ce MAEA] przeprowadzi inspekcj\u0119 obiekt\u00f3w ze wzgl\u0119du na to, co powiedzia\u0142em\u201d.<\/p>\n Mo\u017cliwe jest zatem, \u017ce posuni\u0119cie Ardestaniego jest wykalkulowane \u2013 kolejne z serii o\u015bwiadcze\u0144 wysokich rang\u0105 przedstawicieli ira\u0144skich maj\u0105cych na celu ugruntowanie w mi\u0119dzynarodowej opinii publicznej pogl\u0105du, \u017ce Iran posiada bro\u0144 nuklearn\u0105 lub \u017ce Iran ma do niej prawo w celach odstraszania w ramach osi\u0105gni\u0119cia nuklearnej r\u00f3wnowagi terroru wobec Izraela i Stan\u00f3w Zjednoczonych (patrz MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis Nr. 1556, Iran Uses 'Maximum Pressure’ On Biden Administration To Have Sanctions Lifted And Be Recognized As Nuclear Threshold State \u2013 And Based On This, To Attain Nuclear Balance Of Terror<\/a>, 5 lutego 2021 r.). Jako pracownik naukowy specjalizuj\u0105cy si\u0119 w strategii politycznej, kt\u00f3ry jest jednocze\u015bnie politykiem, pozwala na wiarygodne zaprzeczanie, maj\u0105ce na celu poinformowanie \u015bwiata, \u017ce \u200b\u200bIran albo posiada, albo powinien posiada\u0107 bro\u0144 nuklearn\u0105, aby zr\u00f3wnowa\u017cy\u0107 bro\u0144 Izraela.<\/p>\n Wydaje si\u0119, \u017ce zamiast zdetonowa\u0107 urz\u0105dzenie nuklearne, aby pokaza\u0107, \u017ce Iran posiada bro\u0144 nuklearn\u0105, w ostatnich tygodniach ira\u0144scy urz\u0119dnicy m\u00f3wili o posiadaniu bomby w celu przygotowania opinii mi\u0119dzynarodowej do og\u0142oszenia, \u017ce \u200b\u200bma bomb\u0119, oraz w celu za\u0142agodzenia jakiegokolwiek sprzeciwu wobec tego. Jak Ardestani zauwa\u017cy\u0142 na zako\u0144czenie swojego wywiadu: \u201eWierz\u0119, \u017ce Iran, kt\u00f3ry staje si\u0119 [mocarstwem] nuklearnym, zyska stopniow\u0105 akceptacj\u0119. Gdy tylko wejdziesz do klubu nuklearnego, b\u0119d\u0105 musieli ci\u0119 zaakceptowa\u0107. To odstraszanie [zapewniane przez posiadanie broni nuklearnej] u\u015bwiadamia \u015bwiatu \u017ce respektuje rol\u0119 Iranu. M\u0105dro\u015b\u0107 mas w Ameryce rozumie, \u017ce Iranu nie mo\u017cna ignorowa\u0107\u201d.<\/p>\n Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani (\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: Roydad 24, 10 maja 2024).[Dalszy tekst \u2013 wywiad udzielony przez Ardestaniego 10 maja \u2013 nie jest spolszczony]\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n „In My Opinion, We Have Achieved Nuclear Weapons, But We Aren’t Announcing It; This Means That Our Actual Policy Is That\u00a0[We] Have A Nuclear Bomb, While Our Declared Policy Is To Operate Within The Policy Of JCPOA”<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Roydad 24:<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0„Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, announced yesterday [May 8, 2024] that Iran has the ability to build a nuclear bomb, but that 'if we need to, we will change our nuclear doctrine.’ These words drew criticism and broad speculation. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the faculty at Imam Sadeq University, a representative in the 9th [2012-2016] and 12th [current] Majlis, and a member of the Majlis National Security Committee [in the 9th Majlis], told Roydad 24 on this matter:”<\/em><\/p>\n Ardestani:<\/strong>\u00a0„Unrelated to Mr. Kharrazi’s analysis, I feel that when Iran threatens American outposts in Iraq, and attacks them with 19 missiles [in January 2020], and when Iran launched 300 missiles at Israel [in April 2024], in [Iran’s] political culture, this usually means that according to its calculations, Iran must have power.”<\/p>\n To view the MEMRI TV clip of Kharrazi’s May 8, 2024 statements, click\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or below.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Note: In the interview, Kharrazi states that if Iran faces an existential threat, it may change its nuclear policy from civilian to military.<\/em><\/p>\n Ardestani continues:<\/strong>\u00a0„It appears that Iran has acquired nuclear weapons, [and that this is what] enabled it to attack Israel with such confidence [on April 14, 2024]. Previously, it attacked America’s Ayn Al-Asad airbase [in Iraq on January 8, 2020, in response to the U.S. killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani]. In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we aren’t announcing it. This means that our actual policy is that [we] have a nuclear bomb, while our declared policy is to operate within the policy of JCPOA.<\/p>\n „When countries want to enter into conflict with one another, they must be equals. For Iran to be equal to America and Israel, it must have a nuclear weapon. When Iran attacked Israel, it harmed America, because the complement of Israel is America, England, and France. America itself has a nuclear bomb, and Iran usually does not do anything without first thinking things through. That is, without having a nuclear bomb, [Iran would not have attacked Israel], since the other side might use its own nuclear weapon in the event of a war.”<\/p>\n „There Is No Need To Inform The [International Atomic Energy] Agency That We Have A Nuclear Bomb”<\/strong><\/p>\n „There is no need to inform the [International Atomic Energy] Agency that we have a nuclear bomb. On numerous occasions, Iran has said a few words [about this] and the IAEA took notice, while in other instances Iran itself announced that the IAEA would visit [Iranian nuclear facilities]. In an environment in which Russia attacks Ukraine and Israel attacks Gaza and Iran strongly supports the resistance axis, it is natural that the deterrence system requires Iran to have a nuclear bomb. But if Iran announces now [that it has a bomb], it’s a different discussion.<\/p>\n „If the IAEA knows that Iran has a nuclear bomb, it will quickly announce this. But [right now], it is only hypothesizing about Iran’s [nuclear] progress. That is, it is saying that Iran needs a little time to get close to [producing] a nuclear bomb, and that if Iran wants to build one, it would take, for example, two months.<\/p>\n „Regarding Iran’s behavior vis-\u00e0-vis America and Israel, I feel that Iran has acquired a nuclear bomb, but is not announcing this. Are the IAEA inspectors taken to the place where Iran is building a nuclear bomb? Iran is a large country, with an area of 1.648 million square kilometers. Are we taking the IAEA to where the bomb is being built? No. We are telling the IAEA to visit specific centers [chosen by us], or the IAEA itself announces which centers it wants to visit.<\/p>\n „Now, too, I say these things as an expert and as an analyst, and I don’t yet have an official position [that will cause them] to inspect the facilities because of what I’ve said. As an analyst, I am presenting this analysis about Iran’s behavior as offense realism. That means that Iran can sleep [soundly] at night when it has a nuclear bomb, because Iran’s enemy, Israel, has a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n „If one day Iran doesn’t want a nuclear bomb, that will be because its opponent, Israel, also doesn’t have one.<\/p>\n „[Khamenei’s] fatwa banning nuclear bombs constitutes an active approach. That is, we are not progressing in this issue to begin with, and there is no room for a nuclear bomb in our defense policy, but occasionally you need to shift from being passive to being active. Indeed, the Leader’s fatwa includes Iranian activism \u2013 but once your opponent in the region [Israel] has a nuclear bomb and is always harassing you, we shift from being active to responding. Iran’s response to the issue of nuclear [weapons] is to possess it, since we want to sleep soundly.<\/p>\n „In its recent attack on Israel, Iran had to have backup, since Israel has a nuclear bomb. So we should also have a nuclear bomb if we want to launch 300 bombs at them. America and Israel know that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb. Maybe they don’t know that it [already] has. But they know that Iran is capable of doing so, and that is why they continue to pressure Iran and to send IAEA inspectors to Iran. But again, this does not mean that Iran is granting these inspectors [access] to all of its facilities.<\/p>\n „The fact that several individuals, including Mr. Kharrazi, are talking about the possibility of changing our nuclear doctrine is a preliminary step before announcing that we have a nuclear bomb. In fact, we want to gradually make it known that we have achieved this doctrine, and we do not want to announce it all at once and frighten the world.<\/p>\n „We do not want to frighten Russia and China. At any rate, if Russia is our strategic ally, and if it discovers that we have a nuclear weapon, it must use its veto in the [UN] Security Council in our favor. But I do not think that Russia wants us to have a nuclear weapon. Iran is slowly making preparations to announce that it has a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n „I do not think that this issue will have many ramifications for us in the international community. At any rate, Iran is popular in the region and in the world after its attack on Israel. When the war in Gaza is over, Iran will lift up its head, and I think it will resolve its problems with America and its relations with it, and even if they aren’t strategic, they will become official.<\/p>\n „After it is announced that Iran has a nuclear bomb, whether or not the sanctions against us increase, I must say that we have [already] experienced all the types of sanctions. That is, there will be an uproar against us, but it will be no worse than Iran’s attack on Israel [which inflicted zero casualties]. I hope that if Iran has attained a nuclear weapon, and that if the Security Council wants to issue a resolution against Iran, that the Russians will this time use their veto in Iran’s favor \u2013 not like [in the Golestan Agreement of] 1814 and the [Turkmenchai Agreement of] 1828 [in which Russia laid claim to the Caucasus and Central Asia, taking it from the Persian Empire after the latter lost in a war], and not like all their past policies. Now, when we have a 20-year [military and trade] agreement with the Russians and a 25-year [cooperation] program with the Chinese, they need to support us even here, so that no one denounces us.<\/p>\n „I believe that Iran becoming nuclear will gain gradual acceptance. As soon as you enter the nuclear club, they have to accept you. This deterrence [provided by possessing a nuclear bomb] makes the world realize that it respects Iran’s role. Now, the wisdom of the masses in America understands that Iran cannot be ignored.”<\/a>[3]<\/a><\/p>\n <\/a>[1]<\/a>\u00a0For a list of all MEMRI reports on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s nonexistent fatwa, see\u00a0Appendix II: MEMRI Reports On The Nonexistent Nuclear Fatwa\u00a0<\/strong>in\u00a0<\/strong>MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1761,\u00a0Senior Iranian Regime Officials Warn Of Iran’s Coming Nuclear Breakout<\/a>, April 25, 2024.<\/p>\n <\/a>[2]<\/a>\u00a0That is, U.S. troops at Ayn Al-Asad airbase in Iraq in January 2020 after the U.S. killed IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike.<\/p>\n <\/a>[3]<\/a>\u00a0Roydad 24 (Iran), May 5, 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" W wywiadzie dla serwisu informacyjnego Roydad 24 z 10 maja 2024 r. cz\u0142onek Mad\u017clisu, dr Ahmad Bachszajesz Ardestani, ujawni\u0142, \u017ce Iran zdoby\u0142 bro\u0144 nuklearn\u0105 \u2013 ale nie og\u0142asza tego na tym etapie, by nie przestraszy\u0107 swoich sojusznik\u00f3w, Rosji i Chin, lub \u015bwiata. Bachszajesz Ardestani (63 lata) reprezentuje Isfahan w obecnym Mad\u017clisie i by\u0142 cz\u0142onkiem komisji […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[827,833,835,837],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iran","category-badania-i-analizy","category-archiwum","category-kraje"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21444"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21444\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21447,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21444\/revisions\/21447"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Ahmad](\"https:\/\/www2.memri.org\/polish\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Picture1-9.jpg\")
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